August 22, 2024
TORONTO — By Ed DeRosa
Of course the King’s Plate is one of the best wagering opportunities on the 12-race card this Friday at Woodbine, but we already discussed that on Railbirds last week, and the field hasn’t changed.
What we didn’t mention is that to be one of the best wagering opportunities there have to be other great opportunities to compare it to, and there might be no better than the King Edward Stakes–especially if you like betting against favorites.
#8 Filo Di Arianna is a worthy favorite, but is he worth 4-to-5? I say no. First the positives: He is undefeated in four career starts at Woodbine and is a perfect 3-for-3 with Kazushi Kimura as his jockey. He won this race in 2022 and then lost six consecutive races before winning the six-furlong Highlander Stakes last out.
A lot of times, you’ll hear me say (or read me write), “The favorite is only as good/fast as a few others in here; why take the shortest price on a horse who’s only as good as the others.” Well, in this case, I’m not even sure Filo Di Arianna is as fast as some of these.
#6 War Bomber and #1 Cruden Bay, in particular, definitely have some races that look more impressive than any of Filo Di Arianna’s. I like War Bomber’s forward style and expect him to improve in his third start this year. He made an early move last out when Cruden Bay ran him down in the Connaught Cup. I have a slight preference to War Bomber here, but assuming Filo Di Arianna is as heavily favored as the morning line suggests, I will use both #s 1 and 6 to start the pick 6.
#2 Ironstone and #3 Wicked Django have longshot looks to them. If they’re double digit odds, then I would definitely be keen to play them in exacta and trifecta wagers with the favorites. #s 4, 5, & 7 are throwouts for me.