November 28, 2024
KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa
It may be Black Friday, but there is no two-for-one special on the Brad Cox trainees in the Grade 2 Clark Stakes at Churchill Downs.
That’s OK, though. We’re not looking for a sale because we like the horse who figures to be the longer price of the pair.
#5 Most Wanted and #6 Hit Show are my two most likely winners of the 1 ⅛-mile Grade 2 for three-year-olds and up. Cox trains both, and it is the latter who is the 3-to-1 morning line favorite and likely public choice in the race.
Hit Show has been super consistent, winning three consecutive graded stakes races with Brisnet Speed Ratings (similar to Beyer Speed Figures and other performance ratings) in the low 100s each time. That consistency makes him dangerous, but not a lock.
#5 Most Wanted has more upside because he has only raced four times in his career, winning all four of those races including the Ellis Park and Oklahoma Derbys in his last two starts. He also gets a few pounds as a three-year-old against older, and Florent Geroux has ridden both Cox horses in each of the aforementioned stakes wins but sticks with Most Wanted here (not that it’s a negative that Tyler Gaffalione ride Hit Show, but it is interesting who Geroux stuck with).
The four minor contenders after the Cox trainees are #3 Crupi, #7 Rattle N Roll, #8 Red Route One, and #9 Cooke Creek. Crupi, Rattle N Roll, and Red Route One are all closers, which definitely makes things easier for Most Wanted on the front end. Cooke Creek should be prominent early and is worth using in certain wagers if he’s a big price, but Most Wanted is the preferred play at his 4-to-1 morning line.
The Bet:
I will bet Most Wanted to win and play an exacta box with his stablemate as long as Hit Show is at least 2-to-1. If Red Route One and/or Cooke Creek are at least 8-to-1 then I will play them in exotics with the Cox horses. I don’t expect the right prices on either Crupi or Rattle N Roll so will be tossing them.