January 18, 2024
NEW MEXICO — By Ed DeRosa
Fans of my corner of the Railbirds content empire know there are not many circuits and race types that I shy away from, so it should come as no surprise that I was excited to sneak a peak at the stakes action on Friday, Jan. 19, at Sunland Park in New Mexico.
In addition to the wagering opportunities to close the card, paying attention to the Allison Riley Futurity, in particular, could pay dividends later this year, as this race is an early prep for the Sunland Park Derby, a key points race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
The 9-race card on Friday at Sunland concludes with an all-stakes Pick 4, and the late double concluding with the Futurity attracted my attention because the morning line favorite in the Futurity looks vulnerable while #2 Competitive Idea looks formidable in the preceding Fort Bliss Stakes.
The double is more commonly known as “the daily double” from its days as the only multi-race wager on a card. Now that most tracks offer a double on all races except the last, I’ve dropped the “daily” part. However, the goal is the same: pick the winners of two designated (often consecutive) races.
Easy, right?
Well, easier to get right than bets involving 3 or more horses, but it can be trickier to make money because payoffs are suppressed–especially when dealing with likely winners such as Competitive Idea.
Too many people approach betting as trying to hit bets versus making smart bets that will win money in the long run. For example, you have to be willing to ride or die with the opinion you’re hanging your hat on, and for me that’s Competitive Idea in race 8.
This gelding is 4-for-7 at Sunland and 8-for-18 at the 6-furlong distance, which includes a win in this race last year. There is plenty of speed for him to sit behind and close into again. He is the only horse I’m using.
It’s not all chalk, though! The morning line favorite in the Futurity (race 9) is #6 Lucky Jeremy, who broke his maiden sprinting in the slop at Churchill Downs. I do not love betting back horses stretching out (this is a two-turn, one-mile race) off sloppy sprint wins at short prices, so Lucky Jeremy is a toss for me.
#3 Crafted won in similar gate-to-wire fashion in his career debut. Brisnet designated that race as “fast”, so that Crafted saw it out on the front end is a positive sign–and that he stretches out here is a positive as well. His sire (father) is Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso.
#2 Alotaluck is the only other one that interests me in the Futurity. He also won on debut, drawing off at Zia Park. This will be a big class test for him, but the price will be right because the big-name shippers (the aforementioned Lucky Jeremy and Crafter) will definitely take money.
How I’m betting:
$5.00 double- #2 (Race 8) and #3 (Race 9)
$2.00 double- #2 (Race 8) and #2 (Race 9)
Obviously, you can scale that to your appetite. Good luck!
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