April 5, 2024
KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa
If you’re excited for the trio of Kentucky Derby preps on Saturday then you should be really excited for the pick 3 that ties them together.
The $3 pick 3 begins with the Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct, continues with the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, and concludes with the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park.
The higher-denomination pick 3s that include multiple tracks have a strong (pardon the pun) track record of paying a premium versus traditional 20- and 50-cent Pick 3s, so I am excited to play this one not only because it’s a fun bet but also because I have strong opinions.
In the Wood Memorial, I was stunned to see the disparity in morning line between a pair of undefeated colts in Gotham Stakes winner Deterministic and maiden-allowance winner Tuscan Sky. The former is the 7-5 favorite and the latter is the 4-1 second choice.
I think Tuscan Sky is the more likely winner, so this is a tremendous opportunity in the win pool and I can’t resist singling him to start this pick 3.
In the Blue Grass, I have a somewhat ironic selection in Just a Touch. This is ironic because Deterministic beat Just a Touch in the Gotham, but that was a one-turn mile and these are two-turn 1 ⅛-mile races, and I think that favors Just a Touch. I also want to use Dornoch in the Blue Grass. People are bearish on his scratch-depleted Fountain of Youth Stakes win, but his numbers are fast enough to compete here at a square price.
In the Santa Anita Derby, it’s a two-horse race between #3 Stronghold and #4 Imagination. Stronghold looked good winning the Sunland Park Derby and catches a lot of speed to run into here. If anyone is able to win on (or near) the front end, then Imagination is it.
The Bet:
So my ticket is #9 Tuscan Sky with #4 Dornoch and #6 Just a Touch with #3 Stronghold and #4 Imagination. By number, it’s the $3 Big 3 Pick 3: 9 with 4, 6 with 3, 4 for a total of $12.
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