August 29, 2024
KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa
Live racing returns to Kentucky Downs today, Aug. 29, and opening weekend features plenty of stakes and million-dollar races!
The highlight is the $3.1-million Nashville Derby on Saturday, one of 19 stakes during the seven-day meeting that concludes Sept. 11, but the good news for bettors is that the big money is not limited to purses.
Last year the average pick 5 payoff was $15,107 for 50 cents, and the average Pick 3 was 551-to-1! Those averages are as good as any North American track, which is why so many horseplayers love this boutique meeting in Franklin, Ky., about an hour north of Nashville.
Let’s start things out with a bang on opening day, as the feature is the $500,000 Tapit Stakes, which after scratches features a field of nine, and I have a strong preference for #10 Chasing the Crown, who despite the depleted field should still have plenty of pace to chase here.
This race is restricted to horses who have never won a stakes race, but Chasing the Crown’s class more than stacks up given a pair of runners-up efforts in graded stakes races in his last two tries. This is the type of condition book wizardry that trainer Mike Maker excels at (i.e., he spots his horses very well), and Chasing the Crown is the horse to beat.
I will bet him to win at odds of better than 2-to-1, and I will look to get a little cheeky with #12 Howling Time, who is 50-to-1 on the morning line. He is a longshot for sure, but not the least likely winner, and if you’re in a gambling mood fooling around with him to complete the trifecta could make for a huge payoff.
As for the Nashville Derby on Saturday, Carson’s Run will get a lot of attention as the American horse who won the Saratoga Derby, but I see him as being overbet. #6 Bellum Justum will attract money as an international-based invader with Frankie Dettori riding, and he should attract money because he is the most likely winner. I will bet him at 5-to-2 or better.