January 25, 2024
GULFSTREAM PARK — By Ed DeRosa
One of the richest doubles in horse racing is Saturday at Gulfstream Park.
The $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational concludes a 13-race card with the $1 million Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational as the preceding race. Together, they are the richest dirt and turf races, respectively, in Florida, and make up a day of racing that is by far the richest of its kind during the North American winter.
And the news is even better for bettors: neither of the morning line favorites in the two million-dollar races is worth a bet. That equals the (potential) for big payouts if I’m right.
In the Pegasus World Cup Turf, #9 Warm Heart carries with her all the credentials that attract money: She is a two-time Group 1 winner (they’re called group races in Europe, but they are the same prestige as our graded races) who finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf and third in the Hong Kong Vase and comes from the world-renowned barn of trainer Aidan O’Brien.
But, this will be her first time going shorter than 1 ¼ miles since her second career start, and the ground and (relatively) tight(er) turns at Gulfstream could make her more vulnerable than her past performances suggest. She can win, but as the 9-5 favorite, I am passing.
In the Pegasus World Cup, #7 National Treasure is the morning line favorite, and while I do think he has a better chance to win than does Warm Heart, he will be overbet as well. Like Warm Heart, National Treasure checks boxes that make people want to bet him: He is the only Grade 1 winner in the race, and his trainer might be the only conditioner more well known than the aforementioned O’Brien in Bob Baffert.
So if we don’t like the favorites, who do we like? In the Turf, #3 Integration is the most dangerous, but I will also want to use #s 6, 10, 11, and 12 at what I expect will be overlaid prices. In the big one, I foresee #s 2, 6, 9, and 12 as the most likely to offer value.
A double connecting all the horses I like is $20: 3, 6, 10, 11, 12 with 2, 6, 9, 12.
The Road to the Kentucky Derby resume in earnest on Saturday, Feb. 3, with four points races coast to coast plus a fifth stakes at Turfway Park. However, there is a maiden race on the Pegasus undercard that has people’s attention. If you’re into future stars, then be sure to check out race 2 on Saturday at Gulfstream.