November 7, 2024
NEW YORK — By Ed DeRosa
The New York Racing Association is kind enough to send us into the weekend in style with a stakes double during the opening week of Aqueduct’s fall meeting.
The Pebbles and Autumn Days Stakes closes the 9-race card on Friday, and the former event–a one-mile turf contest for three-year-old fillies–particularly interests me because I have a strong opinion not only on a non-favored runner but also how to bet the race.
The Pebbles attracted ten entrants, but two of those–#9 Save Us Melania and #10 Best Impression–would run only if the race is on dirt so for the sake of this argument we’re assuming this stays a one-mile turf race.
#2 No Mo Candy had done nothing wrong in three career starts, winning second-time out on synthetic before scoring a gate-to-wire next out going 1 3/16 miles on turf. With the turn back to one mile here I expect the Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee to be pressing the pace set by one of the two outside horses–#7 Macanga or #8 Way to Be Marie–and we know the conditioning is there for her to sustain a long rally to get the dub at 10-to-1 morning line.
Macanga is one of the logical choices and definitely has the pace edge over Way to Be Marie. #6 Oversubscribed is the obvious class exiting the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup where she attended the pace before fading. She is the primary danger to our top pick, as I could see her getting the jump on No Mo Candy turning for home.
#3 See You Around is a bit of a wild card and intrigues at 8-to-1 morning line, but I think she’ll get bet down from that given that she was beaten just 1 ¾ lengths in a Group 1 (the highest level of racing in Europe) earlier this year.
The Bet:
So from a wagering perspective, it’s pretty straightforward that I will be #2 to win and then in an exacta key box with 3, 6, 7