October 10, 2024
KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa
There are three horses I think have the best chance of winning the Sycamore Stakes on Friday at Keeneland: #7 Tawny Port, #10 Ohana Honor, and #11 Bold Act.
This is a case where I’m calling for a good ol’ fashioned win bet because Tawny Port figures to be the longest price of the three.
Think of these types of scenarios as betting a coin flip. There’s a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tales. If the odds on heads were 6-to-5 and the odds on tails were 4-to-5 then I’d hope you’d bet on heads every time. It’s not that tails can’t win–you will lose 50% of the time–it’s that you’ll make more money betting heads in the long run.
So it goes with Tawny Port, who–despite the longer price than the other two–I expect to win this race most often.
As any good port should, Tawny Port has aged well, bankrolling $1.3-million with stakes wins on dirt and turf. He even defeated 2023 Horse of the Year White Abarrio in the 2022 Ohio Derby on dirt! Going long on the grass seems to be where trainer Christophe Clement (who took over from Brad Cox in summer 2023) wants him for now, though, and while he is 0-for-4 at these marathon distances on the lawn, his second and two thirds against graded stakes competition certainly fits well here.
His running style fits well, too, especially with Irad Ortiz Jr. getting the mount. He piloted Tawny Port to a third-place finish–beaten just a neck–in the 1 ½-mile Pan American Stakes earlier this year, and a similar trip seems likely in the Sycamore.
Oh Ohana Honor and Bold Act, I prefer the former because I expect him to be more forwardly placed, and there is not enough other pace in here to worry about him being wide from the outside post.
From a longshot perspective, #1 Verstappen is worth a look. He is 10-to-1 on the morning line, and while that’s a little light for me, I expect he could be 15-to-1 or higher. If that’s the case I’d be willing to key him in exactas with #s 7, 10, and 11.
My primary focus is on Tawny Port, however. I am betting him to win at 4-to-1 or higher, and he is a single for me in most multi-race wagers.