December 27, 2024
CALIFORNIA — By Ed DeRosa
The downhill turf course at Santa Anita Park is one of the more unique race configurations in North America with its big sweeping turn going downhill before crossing over the main track for a blitz toward the finish.
It is that course that will be on display for the feature on Saturday at Santa Anita, the Grade 2 Joe Hernandez Stakes for turf sprinters three years old and up.
And as fun as any downhill race can be at The Great Race Place, we here at Railbirds are especially excited because the 5-to-2 morning line favorite Motorious looks beatable.
Obviously this horse has talent by virtue of his runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, and two wins downhill catches the eye. The issue for me at a short price is that Motorious pressed the pace in those downhill races but has basically become a deep closer since, and I don’t like that trip for him here. Maybe Antonio Fresu rides closer with the added distance, but I don’t want to gamble on that at a short price.
I like both Air Force Red and Unconquerable Keen best in here. They are 9-to-2 and 5-to-1 on the morning line, respectively, and even though Air Force Red is slightly shorter between the two, I give him my top nod with Juan Hernandez riding and an impressive four wins going Downhill.
Air Force Red will certainly be prominent early, and while Unconquerable Keen will not be far back either, I view Air Force Red as having a tactical advantage.
#8 Gaslight Dancer is another deep closer, but Frankie Dettori’s presence at 12-to-1 morning line can’t be ignored. #9 Sorrento Sky has a couple Downhill wins and figures to get a similar trip to Air Force Red.
My wagering strategy will be to beat Motorious completely out of the exacta. I will box 1, 5, 8, 9 for $12 and then press with a 1, 5 with 1, 5, 8, 9 and 1, 5, 8, 9 with 1, 5 for another $12. That gives us $3 on 1-5 and 5-1, $2 on 1, 5 with 8, 9 and 8, 9 with 1, 5, and $1 on 8-9 and 9-8.