February 8, 2024
NEW MEXICO — By Ed DeRosa
A good rule of thumb for any horseplayer is that the more horses in a race the better the opportunity for wagering.
The most common field size is 8. That means 8 horses can win with 56 potential exacta combinations and 336 possible trifecta combos.
An 11-horse field might not seem like that much more. It’s only four more horses, right?
Wrong!
While a 11-horse field is only 37.5% more in options than an 8-horse field, it represents more than double the exacta opportunities and nearly quadruple the trifecta. I.e. a lot more opportunity to attract (and win) money. Indeed, the average win price in a 11-horse field is 20% higher than an 8-horse field with the average place and show prices ballooning by 30% each!
That is why handicapping the Jamison Memorial Handicap on Friday at Sunland Park was on my to-do list. This $100,000 race for New Mexico-bred older horses not only attracted a full field of 11 but also is an interesting handicapping puzzle.
Unfortunately, there was a scratch, and it happened to be of a horse I was excited to bet. That’s why all the numbers above cite an 11-horse field.
There is good news, though. I’ve moved from liking the 5-2 morning line favorite to a 12-1 outsider. Because of the scratch we probably won’t get 12-1, but #4 Massive Roar is a major player here at a big price.
I like that he figures to be on the lead and will be tough to catch. #10 Henry On the Run and #12 One Mark both catch my interest as potential closers.
One horse I’m leaving out of the mix even though he looks really good on paper is #1 Diabolical Storm. The rail post position has won just 3% of races at the current Sunland meeting, and that is just too negative a statistic to pair with a short price.
The Bets:
My plan is to bet $12 on #4 to win, do a $1 exacta key box #4 with #3, #6, #10, #12 ($8), and a $1 exacta box #3, #4, #6, #10, #12 ($20). That’s $40 total bet.
Good luck!
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Your point of view caught my eye and was very interesting. Thanks. I have a question for you.
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