November 13, 2024
INDIANAPOLIS — By Ed DeRosa
It’s closing day at Horseshoe Indianapolis, and the curtain comes down in Shelbyville with a 12-race card featuring ten Thoroughbred races including a stakes-double as races 8 and 9.
The Miss Indiana for fillies and the Indiana Futurity for males are both for two-year-olds with many entrants in both added-money events stretching out to two turns for the first time. And while these races share those characteristics, they are very different in terms of how I will approach them from a wagering standpoint.
Race 8 is the Miss Indiana, and figures to be the much more formful of the stakes pair as #6 Elegant Justice is undefeated in three starts against fellow Indiana breds with her lone loss coming when trying open stakes company at Prairie Meadows.
She is clearly the horse to beat here. Unfortunately, I am not telling you anything you will not figure out from the toteboard as there is every reason to think this 4-to-5 morning line favorite will be as low as 1- or 2-to-5.
#1 Molly’s Potion figures to benefit from the rail draw. There is plenty of speed in this race, and if jockey Joseph Ramos can save ground, he could be the one running late. #3 Off Pitch chased Elegant Justice last time and was no match, but a more relaxed voyage from a better draw could make her competitive late. #8 Hot Middles was runner-up to Elegant Justice two back, but I’m a little nervous about the no excuse third last out, and she figures to get bet after finishing behind the favorite.
The Bet:
I will play a $5 key box 6 with 1, 3 and then do another $5 key 6 over 1, 3. This costs $30 total (You can do it for a buck for $6 or for $10 for $60, etc.).
The Indiana Futurity figures to be a bit more competitive with #5 Large Pour the favorite off a speed-and-fade second last out. If two turns helps this son of Vino Rosso relax then he will be awfully tough on the front end, but I’m worried how much money he will take relative to his actual chances (i.e. I think he could be overbet).
#4 Mondavila interests me because he has run well in both starts he was forwardly placed. The lone loss came after his worst start, but he still closed to finish behind Jazzole, Large Pour, and Slam Dunk Justice. I would not want him trying to duel with Large Pour here, but he should be closer to the pace based on his wins and is my pick to upset the race.
The Bet:
I will bet #4 to win and in exactas with Large Pour.