November 2, 2023
SANTA ANITA PARK — By Ed DeRosa
There are more ways to bet the Breeders’ Cup than there are ways to make a Waffle House hashbrown.
The sheer volume of combinations in which you can bet your favorite horse(s) is a dizzying array of bet types, dollar amounts, and races, and it’s important to remember that not all bets are created equal… some bets are better than others.
Thankfully for you, I looked back at the past 16 years of Breeders’ Cup results (starting with 2007 when the two-day era began) and determined some best practices so you don’t have to.
First, some really good news as it pertains to this year’s Breeders’ Cup. Of all the host sites for the World Championships, Santa Anita consistently has the lowest rate of winning favorites. Big fields and beatable favorites is the best recipe for jackpot-style payoffs!
As for bet types, I know a lot of people like daily doubles. That bet requires you to pick the winners of two consecutive races. In theory, it offers a good balance of higher payouts because of the increased difficulty without being as tough as the pick 4s and 5s. Unfortunately, theory and practice don’t always get along–especially at the racetrack.
Based on my study of every double involving two Breeders’ Cup races back to 2007, this is the most efficient pool by far. The payout on doubles is most often suppressed compared to the win parlay.
That is in stark contrast to Pick 3s and 4s, which pay generously versus the win odds and should be your focus even as they are more difficult races to hit.
In summary, don’t be afraid to go against favorites. If you have a strong opinion, the win pool is your friend and is better than playing doubles. If you have a string of opinions, then you can count on the Pick 3s and 4s to pay a premium. Ignore doubles.
In practice, there is an all-turf $3 Pick 3 encompassing the trio of Breeders’ Cup races on Friday. I am going to play a ticket singling #2 River Tiber in leg 3 (race 9, the Juvenile Turf): 2, 9 with 4, 5, 6, 11 with 2 ($24).