September 5, 2024
KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa
Before we get into the field for the One Dreamer Stakes today at Kentucky Downs, the one thing you absolutely must know about this track is that 18 of the 33 races during its opening week were won on the front end.
To paraphrase William Shakespeare, that famous Strattford-Upon-Avon playwright, a bias by any other name would smell as sweet. Actually, Franklin, Ky., is often-called the Strattford-Upon-Avon of the Americas, so it fits.
Anyway, speed is king at North America’s only European-style racecourse, or at least it has been through the first three days of the 7-day meet that continues today and concludes on Wednesday Sept. 11.
The other thing worth noting is that the payouts have been robust with an average win mutuel of $15.91 and exacta payouts of 58-to-1. To quote another wordsmith–Churchill Downs Inc.’s own Joe Kristufek–if you get it right, you’re going to get paid.
We’re looking to get paid in the One Dreamer Stakes, race 9 of 10 today at Kentucky Downs. There were no early scratches as of Wednesday afternoon, so we’re approaching this race as if none of the also eligible horses (#s 13-15) draw in. This is important because #13 Lute Warm would be a win contender if she makes the gate.
As for who is in the gate right now, I don’t love that I landed on two outside horses because the inside (posts 1-6) has done almost as well as speed. I.e. saving ground has been a key to success this year at Kentucky Downs.
Be that as it may, #11 Angel Nadeshiko and #12 Hidden Connection are 12- and 20-to-1, respectively, on the morning line, and those are simply too good of prices to pass up.
Angel Nadeshiko getting Flavien Prat hot off his incredible Saratoga meeting has to be seen as a big positive here. She ran OK in a stakes on synthetic 2 ½ months ago at Gulfstream and got a freshening before showing up here. That race wasn’t particularly fast, but with the time off and some quality races to run back to, she’s a threat at a nice price here.
Hidden Connection’s wild card is turf but her trump card is speed. She has only run on dirt in a career of 22 starts and $846,858 in earnings, but turf seems within her scope, and more importantly if her early speed on dirt translates to Kentucky Downs then this group will not catch her–even from that outside post.
It’s a shame #9 Stir Crazy seems so compromised by the track profile, as she would unquestionably be my pick if it were easier to trust closers. As is, though, her 12-to-1 price makes her hard to ignore.
This is a fun race with a chance for a big payout. I am going to box 9, 11, 12 in an exacta ($6 for a $1 exacta box) and do another exacta box 2, 7, 9, 11, 12 ($20 for a $1).