September 29, 2023
KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa
As a bettor in the thick of Breeders’ Cup prep season, there are two primary reasons to engage in the graded stakes action on Saturday coast to coast:
- potential betting opportunities within the races themselves, &
- research for betting the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 4 at Santa Anita Park.
Even if there is not a betting opportunity, watching these races and sizing up the competition ahead of North America’s richest horserace can pay dividends. More on that after the fact, though. Going into the weekend, our primary objective is to win on these races!
The big three races begins with the Woodward Stakes at Aqueduct, continues with the Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs, and ends with the Awesome Again at Santa Anita Park. All three races are 1 1/8 miles, a traditional distance for the 1 1/4-mile Classic.
In the Woodward, #4 Zandon is a worthy favorite, but from a betting perspective, I am concerned that he will be bet down from his morning line, which makes him an unattractive prospect. Because horse racing is a pari-mutuel game, when one horse is too low, that can mean another horse (or horses) are too high. As (if) other horses get over-bet, then I think #6 Costa Terra and #8 Tyson become attractive.
THE WOODWARD BET:
$5 exacta box 4, 6, 8 ($30); $5 exacta key box 4 with 6, 8 ($20).
TOTAL: $50
There is definitely no need to overcomplicate the Lukas Classic betting. #4 Rattle N Roll will be favored but not offer the right odds to bet to win. #8 Five Star General is nearly as likely a winner as Rattle N Roll but will be a much better price. This is a clear example of making a win bet on our top contender and then using the exacta as a sort of place bet since we do respect the favorite.
THE LUKAS BET:
$40 win #8; $10 exacta 4-8.
TOTAL: $50
The Awesome Again is the most interesting race of the trio because the Bob Baffert-trained duo of #2 Defunded and #7 National Treasure figure to be low odds relative to their actual chances of winning (according to me). Defunded took a big step backward last race, and I just do not trust him as the favorite to return to winning form. National Treasure is more reliable, which is to say he is consistent, but he is not consistently faster than a few of these.
I am most interested in #3 Slow Down Andy, who appears to have a tactical advantage as a frontrunner as well as a talent advantage as one of the fastest horses in the race. #1 Senor Buscador, on the other hand, figures to be prominent late, and he is the closer I like best.
THE AWESOME BET:
$30 win #3; $10 exacta box 1-3 ($20).
TOTAL: $50