July 4, 2024
KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa
It’s July 4th, and that means fireworks! The sky will light up above parks and beachfronts throughout the U S of A Thursday night, but as a horseplayer of course we’re looking for fireworks of the pari-mutuel variety, so here are three longshots that caught my eye to celebrate the Continental Congress adapting the Declaration of Independence in 1776.
Ellis Park, Race 7
It is not only Independence Day but also opening day at Ellis Park, the summertime home of horse racing in the commonwealth of Kentucky.
Ellis is a great track to visit with its county fair-style atmosphere, including an open air grandstand and concessions hot off the grille, and it is also a great track to bet–as Kentucky’s burgeoning purse structure has led to field size increases.
In race 7, #12 Rockaway Beef drops in claiming price again after debuting for $100,000 and contending for $50,000 in his second career starts. In claiming races, horses enter based on their proposed sale price, so typically, the “cheaper” the price, the softer the competition.
Rockaway Beef was farther back in his second career start but still made a nice rally to pass horses and collect a check to be fourth. I do not love the outside post in this one-mile main track race, but we do move inside a bit thanks to some scratches. Adam Beschizza remains loyal to trainer Jimmy Baker, who’s looking for his first win this year. 12-to-1 a good price, and we’ll be betting to win!
Monmouth Park, Race 4
What is more summer than the beach? We head to “The Shore’s Greatest Stretch”–Monmouth Park in New Jersey– for our next play.
Race 4 is a maiden special weight race for two-year-olds born in New Jersey, and #7 Dumb Money caught our eye on debut. He is one of seven juveniles entered here who have not started, but he is by (i.e. his dad is) Sea Wizard, and 38% of Sea Wizard’s children have won their first career start. The steady workouts indicate readiness, and trainer Gregory Sacco has won 25% of his races this year.
Woodbine, Race 8
Just because we’re celebrating America’s independence does not mean we can’t have a bet with our Canadian friends!
Woodbine has an 8-race card today, and with a 4:30 p.m. EDT first post, these are the perfect races to play between the cookout and fireworks!
The octet ends with what we view as the best opportunity, a maiden claiming race where #6 Olivia’s Melody caught our eye as a filly who did the best running of her career last out after a rough start.
What is interesting to me about that race is she was “only” 6.3-to-1 after starting her career as even bigger longshots on debut (12.8-to-1) and in her second career start (30.1-to-1). That effort at a lower price was easily her best to date, and if she continues to improve she can definitely win this.