How to Best Bet a Trifecta: Tips & Picks for the Prairie Bayou Stakes

KENTUCKY — By Ed DeRosa

We here at Railbirds love picking winners. Reading that, you might be saying to yourself, “Self, if they love picking winners so much then why don’t they do more of it?”

Well, I’m here to tell you that something we love even more than picking winners is winning money.

Now, yes, the easiest way to win money at the track is to just bet the winner, but sometimes other charms allure us. Dare I say, exotic charms?

Beyond the straight bets–win, place, and show–lies what are called exotic wagers. Exacta requires the top two finishers, trifecta the top three, and superfecta the top four. These are the most common types of exotic wagering within a particular race.

We’re going to focus on the trifecta wager because Larry was my favorite Stooge and Jan was my favorite Brady–i.e. I like it in the middle.

No, that’s not really why. It’s because there’s a race on Saturday ripe for trifecta wagering, which I like to pull out of the tool kit when certain conditions are met. Yes, conditions. Plural.

Unlike a win bet where you’re just taking a price on a horse you like, trifecta wagering requires a bit more of a plan on betting on the outcome of a race. You have to get the top three positions correct. Yes, you can use multiple horses in each spot, but every combination costs money.

I get excited about the trifecta pool under some combination of these conditions:

1. Decent-sized field (at least 8 but especially more than 10)
2. A favorite who makes sense who will not be overbet
3. A favorite I hate but a small group of logical contenders
4. One horse who figures to be overlooked in the wagering that makes sense to at least hit the board.

The Prairie Bayou Stakes on Saturday at Turfway Park checks three of those four boxes: It’s a decent-sized field (12 are expected to start), a favorite makes sense (#7 Wolfie’s Dynaghost), and one horse figures to be overlooked who can hit the board (#4 Tiz the Bomb).

Tiz the Bomb is a personal favorite of mine, but Woflie’s Dynaghost is just better than not only him but also the rest of this field. Here’s how I’m playing the race given everything I laid out:

1. Both Wolfie’s Dynaghost and Tiz the Bomb finish in the top 3: 4, 7 with 4, 7 with all; 4, 7 with all with 4, 7; all with 4, 7 with 4, 7. That costs $30.
2. Wolfie’s Dynathost wins and Tiz the Bomb finishes 2nd or 3rd: 7 with 4 with all; 7 with all with 4. That’s another $10.
3. Tiz the Bomb finishes in the top 3 and then two of 2, 5, and 7 fill out the other two positions. Key box 4 with 2, 5, 7. That’s $9.

TOTAL BET: $49