April 25, 2024
CHURCHILL DOWNS — By Ed DeRosa
The Kentucky Derby! It’s the world’s most famous horse race, and the one everyone wants to win. Obviously as a breeder, owner, trainer, and jockey you want to be involved with the horse itself, but the magic of horse racing is bettors can be involved, and there’s nothing sweeter than picking the Derby winner!
Our previous post listed the top five reasons to make a win bet on the Kentucky Derby, but we did not address how to select the horse for your win bet.
Horse Racing has a reputation for being difficult, but what can be easier than betting a horse to win and if it wins, you win? It’s the easiest bet there is and the essence of all wagers.
So, how to determine who’s going to win the Kentucky Derby?
The first thing I start with is the speed data. Beyer Speed Figures, Brisnet Speed Ratings, Ragozin Performance Figures, and Equibase figures are the most popular. Each has their plusses and minuses, but from a high level standpoint any of them can get you in the ballpark of who is fast enough to win and who is not.
So who passes that test? It’s a two-part answer for me.
1) Fierceness is the fastest horse. His Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Florida Derby performances win the Kentucky Derby 100% of the time. His Champagne and Holy Bull Stakes efforts do not.
2) Forever Young is consistently the fastest horse. His Ragozin Figure for both the Saudi and U.A.E. Derbys are the second-fastest of any horse in the race, but it’s worth noting that those two performances are faster than Fierceness’s clunkers and everyone else’s.
After that, it’s a large swath of the remaining 18 horses with about half of them in sort of that third tier behind Fierceness and Forever Young.
So, all that is to say, Fierceness and Forever Young are the top candidates on the speed metric for me, and with Forever Young being higher odds than the favorite Fierceness, I’m looking at a win bet on Forever Young.
Other people like to pick a horse based on what handicappers call “class.” This is akin to trying to figure out which conference was the best heading into bowl season or March Madness.
Unfortunately, this system creates more confusion than clarity this year because the best prep in terms of winners coming out of it was not the fastest prep based on the numbers.
The Risen Star Stakes was won by Sierra Leone with Track Phantom second, Catching Freedom third, Resilience fourth, and Honor Marie fifth. Sierra Leone (Blue Grass Stakes), Catching Freedom (Louisiana Derby), and Resilience (Wood Memorial) all came back to win their next races while Honor Marie and Track Phantom were second and third, respectively, behind Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby.
That makes Sierra Leone the standout on class. In addition to how well the Risen Star stacked up, the Blue Grass included the John Battaglia runner-up Epic Ride in third and Remsen-Fountain of Youth Stakes winner Dornoch in fourth. The horse who beat Epic Ride in the Battaglia (Encino) came back to win the Lexington Stakes.
So, yeah, Sierra Leone passes the class test. So if you prefer that method he’s the clear choice, and he is likely not to be favored because of Fierceness.
We’ll be back with much more content Derby week. The post draw is Saturday night.
Check out the parts of our Beginner’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby:
Part 2- Top 5 Reasons You Should Make This Type of Bet at the Kentucky Derby
Part 1- Beginner’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby: Qualifying + Betting Strategy