August 1, 2024
SARATOGA — By Ed DeRosa
Seven horses entered the Glens Falls Stakes, but as a starting point it is safe to view this 1 ½-mile test for older fillies and mares on the turf as a three-horse race between #3 Chop Chop, #5 Eternal Hope, and #7 McKulick.
Unfortunately, these are the top three betting choices with McKulick the 2-to-1 (morning line) favorite, Chop Chop at 5-to-2, and Eternal Hope at 3-to-1.
If this were Let’s Make a Deal and instead of doors we were choosing horses, I’d eliminate Chop Chop first and hope she’s the “zonk” of the trio. It’s not that she can’t win or isn’t talented, but wagering success is predicated on taking stands for or against horses, and for me I don’t like that she has given up the lead at short prices in each of her last two starts.
That leaves Eternal Hope and McKulick–the ol Heinz (57). If the morning line is correct then I definitely prefer Eternal Hope to McKulick, as she should be on the lead for most of this marathon race on the inner turf, and Flavian Prat picking up the mount (he was on Chop Chop last time) is a positive sign as well.
McKulick will be running late, and if she’s able to reel in Eternal Hope then I do not think Chop Chop will be an issue either. So my wagering strategy is to bet Eternal Hope to win at 5-2 or better and a straight 7-5 exacta as a de facto place bet on Eternal Hope (but one in which only McKulick can win to cash).
Because of the short field, it is hard to think either of the outsiders I have mild interest in will offer the kind of price I’d want to play them, but just in case I will say that if either #1 Alpha Bella or #6 Atomic Blonde are better than 10-1 then they are worth hooking up in exactas with #s 5 & 7 (again, I’m willing to toss #3).
Alpha Bella does have a win at this distance and is racing for the third time off a layoff–a favored angle of handicappers everywhere. Atomic Blonde also has a win at the distance, and if McKulick falters for some reason could be the closer that benefits.
#4 Parnac is Atomic Blonde’s stablemate from the barn of Christophe Clement and seems completely overmatched. Likewise for #2 Royalty Interest, the uncoupled stablemate of McKulick for trainer Chad Brown, but she at least could have a say in the pace, which would benefit McKulick.